The Logistic Map: a Simple Model with Rich Dynamics

Suppose the population of the world $latex {P(t)}&fg=000000$ is described by the equation $latex \displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{d}P} {\mathrm{d}t} = a P \,. &fg=000000$ Then $latex {P(t)}&fg=000000$ grows exponentially: $latex {P(t) = P_0 \exp(at)}&fg=000000$. This was the nightmare prediction of Thomas Robert Malthus. Taking a value $latex {a=0.02\ \mathrm{yr}^{-1}}&fg=000000$ for the growth rate, we get a doubling … Continue reading The Logistic Map: a Simple Model with Rich Dynamics

Sigmoid Functions: Gudermannian and Gompertz Curves

The Gudermannian is named after Christoph Gudermann (1798--1852). The Gompertz function is named after Benjamin Gompertz (1779--1865). These are two amongst several sigmoid functions. Sigmoid functions find applications in many areas, including population dynamics, artificial neural networks, cartography, control systems and probability theory. We will look at several examples in this class of functions. Sigmoid … Continue reading Sigmoid Functions: Gudermannian and Gompertz Curves

The Future of Society: Prosperity or Collapse?

The article in this week’s That’s Maths column in the Irish Times ( TM045 ) is about a mathematical model to simulate the future of society.  Our extravagant lifestyle is draining the Earth's natural resources. Population is climbing and climate change looms ever larger. Is the collapse of society imminent? The historical precedents are ominous. Many civilizations … Continue reading The Future of Society: Prosperity or Collapse?

A Simple Growth Function

Three Styles of Growth Early models of population growth represented the number of people as an exponential function of time, $latex \displaystyle N(t) = N_0 \exp(t/\tau) &fg=000000$ where $latex {\tau}&fg=000000$ is the e-folding time. For every period of length $latex {\tau}&fg=000000$, the population increases by a factor $latex {e\approx 2.7}&fg=000000$. Exponential growth was assumed by … Continue reading A Simple Growth Function